The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said the southwest monsoon’s arrival over Goa could be slightly delayed and it could hit the state between June 12 and June 15, a week later than its normal onset.
In the last five years, the state has generally received rainfall after eight to ten days of the onset of monsoon in Kerala. If monsoon hits Kerala on June 6, it will once again be a delayed monsoon onset in Goa.
In 2016, monsoon reached Goa 13 days late, on June 19. In 2017, the monsoon arrived over Goa on June 8, two days later than the normal onset. In 2018, the southwest monsoon hit Goa on June 7, a day after its scheduled time.
“The southwest monsoon in the state is likely to be delayed this year, as its arrival is expected on June 6 in Kerala, five days after its normal onset date and it is expected to reach Goa after seven days, between June 12 and June 15. It usually takes about a week for the monsoon to traverse from Kerala to Goa,” an IMD scientist said.
The forecast model shows various onset criteria are likely to be fulfilled around that time, including a change in wind direction and good rainfall over southern tip of the country.
The monsoon this year is predicted to be near-normal with around 96 per cent of well-distributed rainfall, the weather office said last month. However, the region-wise forecast has not been revealed.
The forecast stands at a moderate error estimate of plus-minus 5 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 887 mm – the average or normal rainfall in the country defined between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average for the entire four-month monsoon season.