The last week was full of hope and consternation for the Indian diplomatic community. On the one hand Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi. The Ministry of External Affairs described the talks as fruitful. But what rattled the Indian diplomats more was the visit of Pakistan’s Commerce Minister and Foreign Minister to Dhaka and the Chinese Foreign Minister travelling to Islamabad to meet his Pakistani counterpart, in addition to other military visits.
Prime Minister Modi hailed the “steady progress” made in improving the bilateral relationship, after his meeting with the Chinese Foreign Minister. On its part, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the two countries have entered a “steady development track” and they “trust and support” each other. Wang also met with Foreign Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar as well as National Security Adviser Ajit Doval to discuss the countries’ disputed border. India’s Ministry of External Affairs said Wang’s meeting with Doval discussed “de-escalation, delimitation and boundary affairs”. However, what was more important for the Indian diplomats was the increasing bonhomie between Islamabad and Dhaka after the fall of former prime minister Sheikh Haseena, who was ousted after a deadly civil unrest.
The Indian defence and security establishment watches the increasing closeness between the two countries with serious concern. Added to this are widespread apprehensions found in the Indian defence circles, related to the cornering of the country as China, Pakistan and Bangladesh forge closer ties.
New Delhi’s concerns are particularly related to the Siliguri corridor, known as India’s chicken neck. The growing Chinese and Pakistani influence in Bangladesh has also put an additional burden on the Indian defence forces, which are now stretched across the entire border, LoC and LAC. Reportedly, Pakistan’s top spy officials have made frequent visits to Bangladesh in a bid to contain India’s growing influence in the region.
During Pakistan’s Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan’s visit to Dhaka last week, the Bangladesh government expressed its keenness to reduce the trade gap with Pakistan through a series of measures, including the formation of a trade and investment commission, withdrawal of anti-dumping duties on hydrogen peroxide exports and reinstatement of duty-free export quotas for tea. Bangladesh also sought Pakistan’s support to develop the country’s leather and sugar industries, said Bangladesh’s Commerce Adviser S K Bashir Uddin.
Bashir said Bangladesh once enjoyed a duty-free quota of 10 million kg of tea exports to Pakistan and requested the reinstatement of that during the meeting. About food trade, he said, “We import food from many countries. Wheat is our main import from Pakistan. If we get competitive prices, we will welcome more imports.”
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar also travelled to Dhaka over the last weekend, marking the first such high-level trip in 13 years. Dar’s two-day official visit was described by Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry as an “important step in strengthening bilateral ties,” which also included meetings with leaders of several political parties, including the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, with the latter having historically opposed Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, making the engagement especially noteworthy.
According to The Daily Star, both countries plan to revive their Joint Economic Commission, with a meeting expected in September or October, the first in nearly 20 years. Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb is scheduled to visit Dhaka for this purpose.
A visa-free pact was formalised following delegation-level talks between Dar and Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Mohammad Touhid Hussain. Other agreements aim to bolster cooperation in trade, diplomatic training, education, media, strategic studies and cultural exchange.
Adding further to this spate of visits are other noteworthy visits between Bangladesh, Pakistan and China. Bangladesh’s Chief of Army Staff, General Waker-Uz Zaman, travelled to China for an official visit where he met senior civilian and military leaders. His trip underscores Dhaka’s growing defence ties with Beijing, which has long been a strategic partner for Bangladesh in military training and procurement.
Meanwhile in Islamabad, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir at the General Headquarters. The discussions apparently centred on South Asia’s fragile security environment, with a special emphasis on Afghanistan, India and the Gulf area. The discussions, according to reports, centred on deepening economic and security partnerships, with emphasis on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and regional stability.
Amidst all this plethora of visits, comes the news that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will soon travel to China. His visit will mark the launch of the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – CPEC-II, which has been delayed for years. Pakistan now presents it as a grand plan for jobs, industry and growth. At its core, it deepens China’s grip on Pakistan’s economy.
For India, the CPEC-II is more than an economic project. It runs through Gilgit-Baltistan and part of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. India claims these territories. By expanding activity there, China and Pakistan reinforce Pakistan’s control. This challenges India’s sovereignty. Gwadar adds to the concern. The port is not only commercial. India fears it may host Chinese naval assets. With the CPEC-II, port expansion makes that risk sharper. Industrial hubs add another layer. China’s projects often blur civilian and military use. Special Economic Zones (SEZs) may double as logistics and surveillance sites against India. From Hambantota in Sri Lanka to Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, Chinese-backed ports now ring India’s maritime zone.
(Asad Mirza is a New Delhi-based senior commentator.)
