In February 2015, a friend of mine voted for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Delhi assembly elections. All her life, she had been a steadfast Congress supporter: the first time she switched was in the 2014 general elections when she plumped for the BJP because she was angry at the ‘scam’ culture in the Manmohan Singh government. Now, months later, she had chosen to vote for AAP. “I like both Modi and Kejriwal,” she told me, “They are self-made politicians who are promising change.”
Fast forward to February 2025. This time, my friend decided to vote for the BJP. For ten years, she had stuck to the ‘Delhi formula’: Modi for PM, Kejriwal for CM. The Congress was not on her radar because she felt it was a ‘wasted vote’ since they had no chance of winning. So why had she chosen not to vote for AAP this time? “Because I felt let down. Do you know I was even an AAP volunteer for a while but now I feel that they are like any other party and Kejriwal is just another politician,” she replied.
In the voting preferences of my friend – a representative of Delhi’s affluent middle class – lies the core reason why AAP and Arvind Kejriwal lost the 2025 elections. When Kejriwal first made a mark on the national stage, it was because he was perceived as the antithesis of the traditional politician. An IITian, a Right to Information activist, a Magsaysay award winner, a founder-member of India Against Corruption, Kejriwal represented the politics of ‘hope’ above all else.
As a political startup, AAP, by contrast, carried no historical baggage. Which is why dreamy, idealistic middle-class professionals gravitated towards AAP and made it a remarkably successful political unicorn in a very short time.
Ten years on, the romantic dream of being a ‘party with a difference’ lies shattered. The same section of the middle class which was so attracted to AAP has chosen to literally dump it in the hope that civic issues like garbage mounds and overflowing sewers will now be addressed.
In a sense, the 2025 verdict was the ultimate middle class ‘wave’ election at play, one where voters expressed a sense of anger and disquiet with the AAP’s style of functioning. A party built on a spirit of voluntarism was seen to have fallen short on governance, tangled in a mix of hubris, histrionics and short-term fixes.
When a bright-eyed Kejriwal in an over-sized muffler moved around Delhi in a small blue Wagon R car, the middle class cheered him on. The simplicity of his lifestyle was endearing. Now, when he was seen to travel in a cavalcade of SUVs, the middle class wondered if he too had succumbed to VVIP privilege. The so-called ‘Sheesh Mahal’, the chief minister’s redesigned residence, became the ultimate symbol of middle class betrayal. There are many ruling party MPs who live in far more opulent homes but when you enter public life with the promise not to occupy government bungalows and then move into a rather lavishly appointed home at taxpayers’ expense, the public scrutiny is that much greater.
Which brings us to a key question: can Arvind Kejriwal re-invent himself and fashion a political comeback? The obvious answer would be to suggest that with his moral halo being erased, the AAP leader will struggle to recapture lost ground. Unlike the BJP and Congress, AAP doesn’t have a durable structure to withstand political turbulence. Those who joined AAP only for a scent of power may well be tempted to desert the party. In the next few months, it is highly likely that the party is weakened by splits and defections and some may even challenge Kejriwal’s leadership.
And yet, scripting 54-year-old Kejriwal’s political obituary would be premature and erroneous. While the Delhi verdict saw a middle class rejection of Brand Kejriwal, there was an equally strong endorsement by lower income groups of the AAP’s jhadoo, a political symbol identified with a certain class identity. There can be no other explanation for the relatively high 44 per cent support the AAP continues to enjoy in Delhi. In a political milieu where voters have become increasingly transactional, Kejriwal’s attempt to provide basic facilities to the poor, be it free power, free water and free bus rides to women did not go unnoticed. Nor did the welcome attempt – at least in his first term – to address the crisis of schools and healthcare systems at the local level. He may
have eventually over-promised and under-delivered on governance but working in a hostile political environment with limited powers made his task unenviable.
Which is also why the BJP should be careful in the manner it seeks to target Kejriwal henceforth. A vindictive mindset that wishes to settle scores may just be the opening the AAP leader needs to hit the streets again. When he was first jailed in 2024 in the alleged Delhi liquor scam, Kejriwal made the mistake of clinging onto office when he would have been probably far better off in relinquishing power and seeking redemption in the people’s court. Maybe he ought to have resigned and called for a snap poll when the Centre with brutish authority brought in an ordinance to overturn a Supreme Court verdict and undermine the powers of the elected government. By the time Kejriwal actually handed over charge to his junior colleague Atishi in October 2024, it was too late. The reservoir of public sympathy had evaporated.
To recapture that common touch and his personal credibility, Kejriwal needs to go back to where it all began for him all those years ago. There is still space in Indian politics for a robust street fighter, someone who raises issues of public concern in a consistent and convincing manner. The Opposition is mostly fragmented and uninspiring. In the circumstances, Kejriwal is still one of the few leaders who possess the strategic nous and ground-level connect to rebuild AAP as part of a wider image makeover. The odds are stacked against him but as an individual who has often punched way above his weight, an electoral defeat may just be the wake-up call he needed.
Post-script: My friend who voted for the BJP hasn’t given up on AAP yet. “If the BJP fulfils its promises, its fine. Else who knows I might change my mind again in five years,” she says. In Indian politics, nothing is permanent and middle class choices in particular can be notoriously fickle.
(Rajdeep Sardesai is a senior
journalist and author.)
