Stopping water-flow and trade won’t stop terrorism. Diplomatic, economic and other measures are fine, but we need a much more muscular counter-terrorism policy
At the 2.5-hour-long all-party meet in the wake of the Pahalgam terrorist attack, all political parties extended full support for actions the government wants to take. The message is ‘India stands united’. But the question is how many times has India stood united after how many terrorist attacks; and when will the Centre’s pusillanimous approach end? Sympathies for the massacre are pouring in from around the world and the G20 envoys have been briefed. All (including the US and Israel) confirm they stand united with India against terrorism, but none blame Pakistan. Former Pentagon official Michael Rubin blames Pakistan for the Pahalgam attack but will the Trump Administration do so? A question is also posed to the US House Intelligence Committee (having two prominent Indo-Americans), which claims to ‘control’ Pakistan, if they had prior intimation of this massacre, and even if not, what do the plan now? In the instant case, terrorists executed the male tourists after identifying their religion. Some analysts say the aim was to message Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his hardcore Hindutva agenda, and target J&K’s economy by killing tourists. One view is there was no intelligence failure while others say among many terror plots averted just this one got through.
A saner view is that this massacre happened due to our own weakness to retaliate; terrorists know that except for usual sloganeering, we do nothing substantial to break the backbone of terrorism. Moreover, our intelligence and counter-intelligence structures are focused on domestic political intelligence. NSA Ajit Doval has been publicly saying that India will take the battle to where the threat originates, but have we done so other than claiming “unknown gunmen” killing terrorists in Pakistan in broad daylight was India’s handiwork – as if the ISI is blind.
Post the all-party meet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi thundered at a pre-election rally in Bihar, “I say to the whole world, India will identify, track and punish every terrorist, and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth….”. In recent years he also publicly said Ghar Mein Ghus Kar Marenga, which Pakistan has actually been practicing. Interestingly, a video clip on X shows Modi, when Chief Minister of Gujarat, demanding how the Centre, having all the resources, is allowing terrorists to enter J&K and executing attacks? Business Standard of April 23, 2014 quoted Amit Shah saying, “When Modi is PM, Pak intruders won’t dare to cross the border”. Interestingly, front-page news which covers Modi’s speech in Bihar, also reports the Centre telling the Supreme Court that 95 criminal gangs, headed by dreaded gangsters operating in Delhi, have committed 5,200 crimes in the last 10-years. With Delhi Police directly under the Union Home Ministry, hopefully the Capital will also be rid of gangsters, while we chase terrorists/perpetrators around the Earth.
An eminent veteran writes: “A sign of the times of the leadership of this country that the meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to discuss response to Pahalgam had four additional invitees…Doval (former police) the Foreign Secretary (bureaucrat) and both Principal Secretaries to the PM (former bureaucrats) but not the CDS!” Many questions have arisen: will India take military action; will it be another surgical strike, something bigger or all-out war; will it be timed to influence elections in Bihar or West Bengal?
As the IAF is conducting exercise ‘Aakraman’ and INS ‘Vikrant’ headed for the Arabian Sea, Pakistan has beefed up troops along the LoC. But American analyst Michael Kugelman cautions India that Donald Trump would not be comfortable with India’s military retaliation against Pakistan, since Washington has its own agenda with Islamabad. Some view the CCS decisions as “mere optics” till the issue remains hot. The Indus Water Treaty is suspended (which Modi had suspended in 2019 also), but not cancelled. Cross-border water flow of Indus, Chenab and Jhelum cannot be stopped. Completing the hydel projects on Chenab and Jhelum can’t happen overnight and this may need heavy security as Pakistan would want to sabotage them. Even then, stopping cross-border flow of these rivers would depend on the capacity of the reservoirs of these projects. We shut down our embassy in Kabul, so why downsize the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi to 30? Why not shut the high commission for the time being or downsize it to 3-4 and let them mop their floors? The figure of 30 obviously is because of the hold bureaucrats have over politicians who can’t survive without them.
A scholar-veteran close to the power centre writes: “Who is listening? The politicians are busy drawing political mileage and bureaucrats are busy working out the next cash flow.” Why are we in such a state? A social media post says India’s hierarchy is solely focused on trade and elections; they idolise Dhanna Seth (Akbar’s financier) who made money any which way – that’s why trade-trade, highest taxation, bank loan frauds, IMF says black money is 50% of GDP. Yet, poor defence allocations. Stopping water-flow and trade won’t stop terrorism either. If poverty could prevent terrorism, Afghanistan would be peaceful. Diplomatic, economic and other measures are fine, but we need a much more muscular counter-terrorism policy; to pay Pakistan back in the same coin, with the army given a free hand. Cutting off Pakistan’s access to the sea should be the ultimate aim.
The Citizen (Lt General Prakash Katoch is an Indian Army veteran)
