DM Deshpande
In the immediate aftermath of the terror attack at Pahalgam, India has suspended its Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. This is an unprecedented move. Just to put it in the context of long term Indo-Pak relations, the treaty that was entered into in1960 with the active help and mediation of the World Bank was never invoked despite frequent unprovoked attacks by Pakistan.
Even at the peak of wars and hostilities, India never looked back on its obligation to ensure uninterrupted flow of water to Pakistan. The intent this time, however, is loud and clear; it cannot be business as usual between the two neighbors.
PM Modi has reiterated what he had said in 2016 after the Uri attack that ‘water and blood cannot flow together’. In future, therefore, there is no guarantee that India will stand by it’s commitment as it has effectively dismantled a long standing pillar of water sharing agreement.
As per the treaty, Pakistan will receive waters from western rivers of the Indus river system- Indus, Jhelum and Chenab while India’s share would come from eastern rivers Sutlej, Ravi and Beas. India is the upper riparian nation and it can cut water supply to Pakistan provided it has water infrastructure, storage, dams etc in place. However such infra have been envisioned for long but have hardly seen the light of the day.
The suspension of the treaty is significant in the sense that it now paves the way for India to plan water and electricity projects along these rivers. It would be similar to what China is contemplating along the Brahmaputra river that will have a huge impact on
a few Indian states.
Pakistan would not keep quiet, it will do all it can and more to stall, delay and cancel such projects. While arbitration will take years, it will still put pressure on Pakistan. In the last five years no hydro electricity project could be commissioned.
Actually, four projects with at least 3000 MW production capacity are under construction across river Chenab; now they may pick up momentum. Till now, the government has undertaken run-of-river hydro projects that do not alter the natural flow of river water. Both Kishanganga and Ratle are examples of such projects. But they have limited
storage capacity.
Water diplomacy and IWT have come in the way of development plans for Kashmir. J&K has huge untapped potential not only for hydropower and irrigation but also for storage capacity. At present, a very large percentage of storage capacity is concentrated in peninsular India.
Large dams like Bhakranangal and Pong are there in the north but they are on eastern rivers. The Tulbul Navigation Project in J&K has been stalled since 1986 which has caused widespread resentment. It can be revived now provided the IWT remains suspended for a longer time period.
Even theoretically it is not possible to think of diverting river waters because of storage constraints. During monsoons these rivers tend to overflow; in order to prevent flooding in J&K, at times large quantities of water will have to be released which will trigger devastating floods in low lying areas of Pakistan.
In 2010 floods more than 2000 people were killed in Pakistan’s Sindh and Punjab. Pakistan’s flood control infrastructure is almost non-existent. This was exposed in 2022 floods when millions of people were displaced. It also caused extensive crop and property damage. Yet Pakistan accuses India of water mismanagement!
Dams in Pakistan are not equipped to control floods and warning systems are outdated. In fact, post suspension of the treaty by India, a major loss for Pakistan will be in terms of blocked data and advance information systems from the
Indian side.
The Indus river system is Pakistan’s lifeline. With just 240 mm annual rainfall, Pakistan depends on these rivers as they supply 90% of freshwater and sustain a 240 million population. Further, the Indus canal system accounts for 90 per cent of the food production and employment of 40 per cent of the labour force. All this means there would, perhaps, be an existential crisis for Pakistan which may take time and for India it will be a test
of perseverance.
There is no provision for exiting the IWT. But there is a mechanism to address grievances. In view of frequent unprovoked attacks, India is insisting on renegotiating the treaty. The suspension of the treaty is not sudden. Stern warnings have been issued since 2016 and 2019.
In a notification in 2022 India asked Pakistan to engage in a fresh look at the engagement. Subsequently in Aug 2024 India invoked the relevant provision of the treaty to modify the treaty.
Yet, water is an essential commodity for human life. India needs to tread cautiously. At stake is its global image as an emerging and responsible power even while it is seeking permanent membership of UNSC and hosting G20 events.
China is not just closely monitoring the events as they unfold but by diluting the terror attack at Pahalgam at the U.N, it is showing its opposition to India. The U.S needs Pakistan in its effort to weed out jihadis. Russia is preoccupied with war. The EU’s support is at best symbolic.
Internally Pakistan is vulnerable, which also raises the risk of hostilities escalating into use of nuclear weapons. Before the time bomb explodes the world and the World Bank should intervene.
The author has four decades of experience in higher education teaching and research. He is the former first vice-chancellor of ISBM University, Chhattisgarh
