The ZP voting indicates that BJP is unshakable in 13 assembly constituencies, while in 27, the opposition has a very good chance of a tough fight in the 2027 assembly elections
The recently-concluded elections for 50 ZP seats were a painful experience for me as a senior citizen for several reasons. At my polling station, the booth officer refused to accept my electronic EPIC card. On the day of counting, December 22, the State Election Commission’s website was down since morning, and it miraculously became active only the next morning, December 23. No reporter, news channel, anchor, candidate, or political party seemed to be affected by this. None of the SEC’s contact numbers work, and no one answers calls from citizens. Teachers and students of political science, economics, and sociology, especially those from ZP constituencies, did not appreciate this grassroots festival of democracy, thereby mocking the ECI voter education guidelines and the National Education Policy, 2020.
I made certain predictions in my previous article, published on December 15. The polling rate was 70.88 percent. I had written that if the polling percentage exceeds 70 this time, a major contribution would be due to the efforts of the BJP machinery. I mentioned that the AAP experiment would fail if they received fewer than 50,000 votes. Regarding RGP, I had written that “If they receive fewer than 40,000 votes, it will be a massive setback.” However, they performed well, and the St Andre RGP MLA Viresh Borkar consolidated his position. The lesson for both these parties in the 2027 election is simple: On their own, they can win a maximum of one or two seats, or none. There is a significant amount of post-poll data that I have studied, and it indicates that 2026 will test all opposition parties.
The ZP voting pattern indicates that the BJP is unshakable in 13 assembly constituencies, while in 27, the opposition has a very good chance of a tough fight in the 2027 assembly elections. The ZP elections involved 8,69,356 voters, of whom 6,16,242 voted. I conducted a micro-level analysis to determine what the 50 winners represented. Together, they received only 46 percent of the total valid votes. I examined basic data, including village panchayats, revenue villages, and the total number of wards they represent, as well as the votes they received as mandates. Here, we need to disregard 56 percent of voters who opposed all the winners. It is a mockery of democracy that 56 percent of the total valid voters could not choose a winner. Therefore, the first-past-the-post rule has produced two Zilla panchayats with 50 members receiving only 46 percent of the total valid votes. Who represents these votes? Goa has 320 villages on record, but October 24, 2025, Series II, number 30 government notification on the delimitation of 50 ZP constituencies accounts for only 262 revenue villages and 191 village panchayats. The names of 58 revenue villages are missing from the list.
Political parties now need to examine the micro-level data: The 32 ZP members of the BJP-MGP alliance represent 116 village panchayats, 161 villages, and 978 wards, and they received 1,84,850 votes. In this alliance, 29 BJP members from both ZPs represented 106 village panchayats, 147 villages, and 890 wards, garnering a total of 208,496 votes. The 11 ZP members of the Congress-GFP alliance represent 43 village panchayats, 55 villages, and 357 wards, and received 42,591 votes. The RGP now represents nine village panchayats, 13 villages, and 79 wards, with two members receiving 10,403 votes. The AAP represents only four village panchayats, six villages, and 32 wards, with just 3214 votes for its lone ZP member. Independents are now a force to be reckoned with. The four independent ZP members represent 19 village panchayats, 27 villages, and 147 wards, and they got 19,024 votes. Thus, 50 ZP members with 2,83,628 votes would run the two ZPs for the next five years, while both the BJP and the opposition would be wondering about the 56 percent of voters who have rejected these winners. ZP polls were treated by all candidates as the first semi-final before the assembly elections.
The second semifinal is now very close. The BJP is in power in 11 of the 12 urban local bodies going to the polls in March and April 2026. These include 200 councillors and 2,22,521 voters. Opposition parties would be tested in this second semi-final before the final elections for the 9th post-statehood assembly of Goa. The lessons for the opposition are straightforward: Chief Minister Pramod Sawant is now firmly in control and has no rivals within the party to challenge him. Voters in 161 villages in Goa have given no indication of favouring a leadership change. All the ZP constituencies falling under the proposed tiger reserve have voted against the candidates favouring such a proposal, with massive pro-government voting in the Sattari and Bicholim constituencies. This is a direct warning to the champions of the tiger reserve, who are opposed to pro-BJP rural voters. Independent candidates without a clear ideology or party machinery to support them are now receiving more votes than the RGP, the GFP, and the AAP. The message from 6,16,242 ZP voters is simple: They do not see a single strong, credible non-BJP political party with a clear, acceptable leader projected as the future CM to form the next stable government. Therefore, 2026 will be a testing year for the non-BJP opposition. There is still hope for opposition in the 27 winnable assembly constituencies, where the BJP is slowly losing ground. Let us welcome the New Year with hopes for a mature democracy and efficient election machinery.
(Nandkumar M Kamat, who has a doctorate in microbiology, is a scientist and science writer)
