Soiru Velip
Panaji
Though the outcome of the Ponda byelection will not alter the numerical strength of the Sawant government, the contest has assumed significance as a political barometer ahead of the 2027 Goa Legislative Assembly elections. The current contest in Ponda Assembly constituency appears to be a sympathy wave versus local anti-incumbency, which will decide the fate of three candidates on April 9, 2026.
As the public campaign will be ending on April 7 for the bypoll, 28,161 voters are eligible to exercise their franchise. It is important to note that compared to the 2022 assembly poll, the tally of eligible voters has decreased by 3,996 following the special intensive revision of the electoral roll.
Though it is a triangular fight on paper for this bypoll with Ritesh Naik as BJP candidate, Ketan Bhatikar as Congress candidate and Geetesh Naik as AAP candidate, as per political observers the real fight will be between the BJP and the Congress.
The bypoll has been necessitated by the demise of former agriculture minister in the Sawant cabinet, Ravi Naik.
The BJP has fielded Naik’s son, Ritesh, banking on sympathy and the family’s entrenched political network in the constituency. In the 2022 elections this factor, combined with the party’s strong booth-level machinery, gave the ruling party a structural edge. Ravi Naik had won the election by just 77 votes against the then MGP candidate Ketan Bhatikar, who is now Congress nominee for the bypoll.
Bhatikar as the MGP candidate had polled 7,437 and Rajesh Verenkar as the Congress candidate secured 6,839 in the 2022 assembly poll. This time, the MGP is supporting the BJP.
However, the contest is not without challenges for the BJP. Localised dissatisfaction over civic infrastructure, employment concerns and service delivery has provided the Opposition with campaign ammunition. The Congress, which has mounted an aggressive campaign, is attempting to convert this discontent into votes. Yet, the absence or delayed participation of some of its senior leaders has exposed organisational gaps, raising questions about its ability to ensure complete vote consolidation.
The hardcore saffronites, who fought the Ravi Naik parivar till 2021, were initially reluctant to support Ritesh. No wonder Chief Minister Pramod Sawant with his ministerial colleagues have been working hard to retain the seat. On Monday, the party got Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis to boost its campaign
Interestingly, the Revolutionary Goan Party, which had secured 1,770 votes in the 2022 elections, has announced its support to the Congress candidate
AAP’s entry has added a new dimension to the contest as its national convener Arvind Kejriwal has campaigned for party candidate Geetesh Naik. While the party may not be in a position to secure a victory, its campaign targeting governance issues and appealing to urban and younger voters could impact the final outcome by splitting the anti-BJP vote. This dynamic could work to BJP’s advantage in a closely fought election. The AAP candidate had just polled over 600 votes in the 2022 Assembly elections.
It is also pertinent to note that the caste and community mobilisation has emerged as a central theme in the campaign. The BJP appears focused on consolidating its traditional support base, while the Congress is attempting to revive its social coalition. However, Ponda’s voting pattern has historically been personality-driven, with candidate credibility and accessibility often outweighing party lines.
Given the current dynamics, BJP’s advantage is its organisational strength, MGP’s support, sympathy factor and a divided Opposition. However, if the Congress succeeds in consolidating anti-incumbency sentiment and minimising vote division, the contest could tighten significantly. If a section of the MGP supports Bhatikar, subtly, it would be advantageous to the Congress.
