The Government of India has notified August 6, 2026, as the commencement date for implementation of the Readjustment of Representation of Scheduled Tribes in Assembly Constituencies of the State of Goa Act, 2025. The Centre has had the power to operationalise this law since August 2025, but the commencement notification was delayed for over a year without any apparent justifiable reason, effectively pushing the entire statutory process against the wall and leaving very little time for its completion. Goa’s ST leaders, also appear to have woken up rather late to the urgency of advancing the notification of the commencement date.
With the 2027 Assembly election approaching, the delay has consumed a substantial part of the statutory timetable and raises the question whether the special mechanism created by the Parliament can still be completed in time in achieving the objective of Assembly constituency reservation for ST population.
The process has moved from the legislative stage to the implementation stage following the Act coming into force on August 6, 2026, with a window of about five months for completion. The Union Law Ministry has set the ball rolling by directing the Registrar General/Census Commissioner to ascertain or estimate Goa’s ST population using the relevant census figures. But the crucial population determination and subsequent ECI readjustment/reservation processes remain to be completed.
With the 2027 Assembly election approaching, the timeline is becoming tight. The immediate priority should be to expedite the ST population notification, complete constituency identification and public consultation without avoidable delays, and ensure close coordination between the Census Commissioner, Election Commission and Goa authorities. A clear milestone-based schedule, with October for population/constituency determination, November for consultation and finalisation, and December for Gazette notification, would provide the best opportunity to complete the process before the election machinery advances significantly.
It is important to take note of a similar exercise in Uttar Pradesh where the process for reservation of two ST seats took about eight months from publication of the revised Census figures to publication of the ECI’s draft proposal, followed by about six weeks for final notification. Goa does not have the luxury of reproducing that timetable. Unless the Census Commissioner’s population determination is already substantially advanced, or the ECI can undertake its preparatory work concurrently and on a fast-track basis, completing the entire exercise before the 2027 Goa Assembly election appears extremely challenging.
An important aspect of this exercise is estimating the proportion of ST population as per 2011 census. The 2025 Act creates the mechanism for ST reservation in Goa in accordance with Article 332 and it does not explicitly mention reservation of four ST seats. The number of reserved seats will have to be determined on the basis of ST population notified by the Census Commissioner.
With Goa’s ST population being 10.23% of the total population, four assembly constituencies are expected to be reserved for ST by the ECI. The Census 2011 does not provide population data for assembly constituencies. Therefore, the challenge is to extrapolate the data by superimposing the assembly constituency boundaries. Some rough estimates indicate Quepem, Sanguem, Canacona and Priol as the frontrunners for reservation strictly based on higher proportion of ST population. However, the official population estimates notified by the Census Commissioner for the purpose shall be final and binding.
But it is important to note that the Constitution does not mandate the ECI to notify ST constituencies strictly based on ST concentration. Section 43D of the Representation of the People Act, 1950 specifically empowers the Election Commission to determine the constituencies in which ST seats are to be reserved, having regard to Section 9(1)(d) of the Delimitation Act. The Section 9(1)(d) says that ST-reserved constituencies shall, “as far as practicable,” be located in areas where the proportion of ST population to total population is the largest.
While the ECI cannot disregard ST concentration without justification, it remains to be seen whether it will strictly follow the proportion of ST population in individual constituencies or take into account other legally justifiable considerations, if any, while determining the ST-reserved Assembly constituencies in Goa.
The reservation issue is not a new election-time demand. Goa’s Gauda, Kunbi and Velip communities were added to the ST list in 2003, and the demand for political reservation has continued through successive elections. This gives the 2027 election a strong historical context. The tribal organisations have publicly warned that failure to operationalise the reservation before the election could lead to adverse consequences politically. As the ST population is spread across the state, consequences if any, may have an impact in several constituencies.
The ST vote could become a statewide political issue rather than simply a four-seat issue. This is an attributed position of those organisations, not an assessment of how voters will ultimately behave. Considering constituency voter base being small and in the past winning margin in many constituencies being thin, a small percentage of shift has potential to change the scenario.
Thus, the Goa ST reservation debate has now moved from a question of political promise to a race against the electoral calendar. With October now upon us and the notification on the ST population still awaited, the clock is ticking on a process that is a question of right, not privilege. The coming months will determine not only whether four constituencies are reserved, but also whether a new generation of tribal political leadership emerges, how established politicians reposition themselves and whether the reservation becomes a transformative electoral development or remains an unresolved issue going into the 2027 campaign.
(Dr Suresh Shanbhogue is a retired senior bureaucrat.)
