Brasilia: President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ‘s comeback to win Brazil’s presidential runoff Sunday is already facing its first hurdle as his competitor, Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, challenges the results, setting the stage for a possible showdown between the country’s two polarizing political forces.
Lula, who convinced an extra 10.4 million voters to support him in the runoff, is expected to take office on Jan. 5, 2027, for his fourth non-consecutive term. He will serve as a counterweight in a region where leaders are shifting to the right and aligning with US President Donald Trump. Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, promised to cosy up to the Trump administration.
On Sunday, Bolsonaro said he planned to request an annulment of the election following a chaotic extension of voting at the request of both candidates. However, it’s unclear what legal avenue he would have to do that. His father also contested his loss to Lula four years ago and now serves a 27-year prison sentence for a coup attempt.
Early signs from Brazil’s institutions and from leaders across the region, including conservative presidents who oppose Lula, suggest the results will be respected nationally and internationally. Trump has yet to weigh in.
Even with the vote extension, Lula’s win was decisive. The soon-to-be 81-year-old incumbent won more than 64 million votes compared to just under 60 million for Bolsonaro, a margin of nearly 4%.
President of Brazil’s electoral authority, Kassio Nunes, who was appointed to the Supreme Court by ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, was among those who recognised Lula’s victory Sunday. India’s leaders from Left parties on Monday congratulated Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on his historic fourth presidential win, with CPI(M) general secretary M A Baby saying it offers hope to people’s movements fighting for workers’ rights.
“This is a really uphill battle for Flavio Bolsonaro. Important Brazilian power brokers are closing ranks behind Lula, sometimes begrudgingly,” said Brian Winter, Brazil analyst and editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.
“I sense that Brazilian power brokers that matter don’t really want to go down the path of a truly contested election,” he said.
The key to Lula’s win was the additional 14.1 million voters who showed up for the second-round election, including those who voted for other candidates in the first round. Analysts say three-quarters of those votes went to Lula, handing him the victory. And notably, the first round set a record for the number of Brazilians who decided not to vote, while the second round had the least number of abstentions ever.
Lula gave his digital campaign to lawmaker Andre Janones, who mounted a fierce and persistent social media operation that mobilized many of those previously uncommitted voters. Janones’ key tool was a channel on messaging app WhatsApp called “Lula’s Army,” which gathered almost 11 million people and mobilized them to campaign via social media for the incumbent.
Janones “basically embraced the right’s style of aggressive politics, very intense, constant messaging,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of International Relations at Fundacao Getulio Vargas in Sao Paulo.
“The defeat in the first round jolted the Lula campaign into action. The strategy during the first round was lackluster and saw a lot of infighting,” Stuenkel said.
Juliano Cortinhas, international relations professor at the University of Brasilia, said Lula’s social media initiative in the runoff was also key to pressuring Meta, the owner of Instagram, WhatsApp and Facebook, to end what the president’s campaign denounced as bias helping Bolsonaro.
Nevertheless, Lula still faces challenges moving forward, including political polarization in the country, a possible fiscal crisis and a right-wing Congress in which Bolsonaro’s party will have more seats than any other. Bolsonaro himself remains a senator, though his term ends in January.
“We shouldn’t underestimate the power of the Bolsonaro family,” said Winter, the Brazil analyst. “They can make life difficult for Lula for weeks and months to come.”
