JP Morgan Global Research analysts estimate that gold prices could reach new record highs by 2026-end, to around $6,000 per ounce in Q4, with upside seen near $6,300/oz in 2027. The forecast comes despite recent weakness in investor interest and a period of sideways trading.
Gold prices have lost momentum in recent months. According to the report, spot gold prices rallied strongly at the start of 2026 before cooling in March and recently touching an intra-year low of $4,170 per ounce.
JP Morgan said uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments and to shape the outlook for the precious metal. “Future demand and price stability seem to depend on the resolution of ongoing geopolitical conflicts and on Fed policy – neither of which are certain at this time,” the report noted.
Greg Shearer, head of base and precious metals at JP Morgan, said investor enthusiasm for gold has moderated for now. “Gold is stuck in a bit of a technical no-man’s land, trudging above the 200-day moving average around $4,340/oz and capped for now below the 50-day moving average at $4,730/oz,” he stated.
“Amid this sideways plod, and with growing worries that the Fed might have to respond to energy-driven inflation with hikes, gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” Shearer said.
Despite that, the report said the factors that have driven strong gold demand over the past few years remain largely intact. According to JP Morgan, concerns over higher inflation, erosion of purchasing power, US fiscal pressures, geopolitical fragmentation and policy uncertainty continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
The report also highlighted the role of central banks, which have been a key driver of gold’s rally in recent years. While official data showed central banks sold 129 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026 and reported net purchases of only 16 tonnes, JP Morgan said alternative estimates suggest actual buying activity remained much stronger. Citing World Gold
Council estimates based on over-the-counter market data and Swiss refinery flows, the report said gold purchases in the first quarter of 2026 may have reached 244 tonnes, up from 208 tonnes in the previous quarter. ANI
China appears to be one of the major sources of demand, according to the report. “Chinese net imports of gold have inflected higher, coming in at 317 tons in the first quarter of 2026, up by nearly three times compared to the previous quarter,” Shearer said. ANI
“Furthermore, the People’s Bank of China has ramped up its reported purchases, from around a one-ton-per-month pace for the six months through February to five tons in March and eight tons in April,” he added.
The report said China’s gold accumulation appears to be part of a broader strategy to diversify reserves as an alternative reserve currency. ANI
