Goa must address declining birth rates before demographic challenges become irreversible
Goa is facing a strange reality: the number of students in its schools is dropping because births have reduced. The state’s fertility rate (now at 1.7 children per woman) has fallen below the replacement rate.
Put simply, women in the state are, on average, having only about 1.7 children each. This is below the “replacement rate” of about 2.1 children per woman, the level needed for each generation to replace itself. If this trend continues, as seems likely, Goa’s population could begin to shrink and the proportion of older people could increase. As of now, we are seeing the impact in falling school admissions. But it also has implications in other fields.
Children, especially those who are ethnically Goan, are fewer in number and less visible. That has become a noticeable trend in our schools. Teachers have been pointing this out for some years now.
Goa’s falling birth rate is the result of diverse social and economic changes. People are marrying later as they become more educated and increasingly enter the job market. Couples are having children later and choosing smaller families. Education costs are rising and housing prices are soaring. Young people have changing aspirations; they prioritise careers and financial security. Current generations are also aware of the sacrifices their parents, grandparents and other ancestors made. Larger families are often seen as a burden. The high cost of housing, education and healthcare, coupled with limited space and urbanisation, has made raising children more expensive. Living is costly in this tourist state.
Besides, many young Goans migrate out of the state or abroad for work and education, meaning a productive and fertile segment of the population is no longer here. Many migrate because there are fewer jobs or jobs that are poorly paid, and many say it is difficult to secure employment on merit.
Behind the declining figures lies the prospect of an ageing society, a shrinking workforce, slower economic growth, labour shortages and pressure on pension and healthcare systems. Fewer working-age people will need to support more elderly citizens. This trend also has implications for preserving language, cultural traditions and community life.
What is the way forward, if there is one? To address these challenges, governments may encourage higher birth rates, extend working lives, increase productivity or depend on immigration to help meet labour and demographic needs.
Several southern states face a similar issue. Kerala and Tamil Nadu are focusing on improving healthcare, supporting older populations and maintaining economic growth through higher productivity rather than population growth. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu recently urged people to have more children, saying that falling birth rates and an ageing population could harm the state’s future. He announced incentives to encourage larger families.
The Jiyo Parsi Programme, launched by the Government of India in 2013, seeks to address the declining Parsi population by providing financial assistance, fertility treatment, counselling and awareness programmes to encourage Parsi couples to have children.
Countries such as Japan, South Korea, Italy and China have introduced measures including financial incentives for having children, paid parental leave, affordable childcare, housing support and tax benefits. Canada and Australia have relied more on immigration.Solutions may neither be easy nor straightforward. This is an issue hiding behind statistics. It is a serious matter — socially, culturally and demographically — for Goa and Goemkars. The government cannot afford to push it under the carpet if it is working in the interests of Goans.
