Abdul Wahab Khan
Panaji : A study has projected that Goa, along with several southern states, may witness a decline in suitable habitats for India’s major venomous snakes by mid- and late-century, while northern and central India could see a sharp rise in snake presence and associated snakebite risks.
Published in Scientific Reports, the study provides India’s first nationwide climate-driven analysis of spatial shifts in the country’s 30 venomous snake populations, particularly the ‘big four’: Bungarus caeruleus (common krait), Daboia russelii (Russell’s viper), Echis carinatus (saw-scaled viper) and Naja naja (Indian cobra).
The study states that Goa and much of the peninsular India may record falling climatic suitability for these venomous snakes over the coming decades. The researchers caution that the Western Ghats, which include parts of Goa’s hinterland, remain one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the country.
They warn of “substantial contractions in the Western Ghats…particularly in northern Karnataka, southern and eastern Maharashtra.”
The study states that similar patterns are likely to affect adjoining pockets of Goa. The Ghats will continue to remain ecologically fragile, with several species facing mounting survival pressures, the study states.
Using over 2,900 validated snake occurrence records sourced from citizen science platforms, biodiversity repositories, scientific literature and social media groups, the researchers developed detailed species distribution models through MaxEnt software. They applied two climate scenarios – a moderate pathway (RCP 4.5) and a worst-case high-emission pathway (RCP 8.5) – to predict future suitability for the years 2050 and 2070.
Their modelling overlaid species maps to identify present hotspots as well as regions likely to undergo habitat loss or gain. The analysis showed that hotspot stability in India could decline significantly, with only 72.93% of existing hotspots persisting by 2070 under the worst-case scenario. As precipitation patterns shift, the Western Ghats, central India and parts of the Northeast appear most sensitive to change.
The study was driven by a need to anticipate ecological and public health consequences. The authors note, “Climate change severely threatens biodiversity, leading to shifts in species distributions… Our projections indicated that around ~3% of India’s land area could undergo hotspot turnover by 2070 in the worst-case scenario.”
The study’s findings reveal a striking directional trend: species are projected to move northward and uphill as temperatures rise. Central India, particularly the Deccan Plateau, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Uttar Pradesh may offer increasingly suitable climates, enabling disturbance-tolerant species such as the spectacled cobra and saw-scaled viper to colonise new landscapes.
