The communist country’s policymakers and analysts do not see any problem with Pakistan, nor is much stock placed on democracy, civil society, the judiciary or the media
Indian armed strikes, as part of Operation Sindoor on nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir on May 7 in the aftermath of the attack on tourists in Pahalgam on April 22, have rattled China. Lin Jian, the foreign ministry spokesperson of China, described the Indian military strikes as “regrettable”. Beijing called on India and Pakistan “to avoid worsening the situation” and “remain calm and exercise restraint”.
This call for restraint may seem to be at odds with China’s sabre-rattling in the Taiwan Straits and against the Philippines in the South China Sea, But here it would not like an escalation in the face-off between the two South Asian nations given their proximity to China. Besides, there is also China’s extensive cultivation of interests in Pakistan. China’s assistance has been a pillar of support for Pakistan, a position mirrored by the Chinese media. China’s state-run media agency Xinhua said atleast 26 people were killed and 46 injured after India carried out strikes on “six civilian settlements in Pakistan”. It also said that the Indian government confirmed strikes on nine identified “terrorist training camps” in Pakistan. While China’s “Global Times” spoke of three Indian fighter jets being shot down by Pakistan, prompting the Indian Embassy in Beijing to send a “fact checking” advisory to the tabloid cautioning against spreading “disinformation”.
Chinese support is linked to the number of stakes Beijing has in Pakistan. Since 1963, after the border clashes with India, Beijing assiduously built relations with Islamabad. China did not stop Pakistan from taking up gauntlets with India. In March 1963, China received portions of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Gilgit and Baltistan and incorporated large swathes of lands in Aghil, Shimshal, Ruksam and Sakshgam, in addition to occupying 38,000 square kilometers of Aksai Chin. With so much land, China has heightened interests in the current India-Pak standoff. China has also built an “all-weather” road from Kashgarin Xinjiang to Islamabad to further its connection to Pakistan.
China has contributed to arming Pakistan by transferring weapons worth more than $20 billion. These constitute over 80 percent of China’s arms transfers world-wide, thus making Pakistan the single largest recipient of Chinese arms. For instance, the latest supplies of JF-17 fighter aircraft, drones, space-based support, beyond visual range PL-15A air-to-air missile systems and others, were pitched against India in the last few days.
China has also provided assistance in missile platforms to Pakistan. The range and reach has been bolstered to cover the entire Indian subcontinent, thus encouraging Islamabad’s stance at moments of bilateral tension.
China has also provided support to Pakistan at the UN Security Council #1267 committee on counter-terrorism and avoiding any proscription of Pakistan-based terrorists. After the Pahalgam terror attack, China’s backing helped waterdown the UN Security Council resolution on the incident.
However, this is contrary to China’s position on countering terrorism. When nine Chinese engineers and technicians were killed at the Dasu hydroelectricity project by terrorists on July 24, 2021, the communist party-backed ‘Global Times’ called for missile strikes on terrorists in Pakistan. China today is contemplating the establishment of “police stations” across Pakistan to counter this menace, even as the Pakistan army has dedicated one division of troops to protect China-funded infrastructure projects. Such projects, packaged since 2014 into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), violate India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated at the Qingdao summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2019. In fact, in addition to the lands occupied in Gilgit and Baltistan, China is also stationing thousands of “security guards” in the region.
China’s analysts suggest that these “security guards” are to protect its interests in these restive regions, even though they may also potentially come under the cross-fire between the armed forces of India and Pakistan in any kinetic shoot down. There are a few “red lines” that have been laid down for their intervention in the region. These include any killing of Chinese citizens in this cross fire and any damage to CPEC projects.
China’s analysts have criticised India for keeping the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance and also invoked the UN resolutions on Kashmir. However, China itself has never signed water treaties with any of its lower riparian States. Also, China was not a UN member when Resolution #47 was passed on April 21, 1948, whose Article 1 actually called Pakistan to withdraw from Kashmir as a precondition for plebiscite.
Five days after the terror attacks at Pahalgam, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke to his Pakistani counterpart and advocated “swift and fair investigation” and said that “conflict does not serve the fundamental interests of either India or Pakistan, nor does it benefit regional peace and stability”. Though China itself may not entertain any “fair investigation” into terror attacks on its soil, it does look out for a way out of rising tension and conflict.
China’s policymakers and analysts do not see any problem with Pakistan, nor is much stock placed on democracy, civil society, the judiciary or the media. For China, Pakistan and its army are a good bet that helps Beijing balance India and power equations in the region.
With $52 billion in investment in CPEC projects, over $20 billion in arms supplies, several billion dollars in aid and loans, China today feels “entitled” to intervene in Pakistan as it has a high stake in the country, particularly at a time China has been feeling the heat of President Trump’s mounting tariffs. It is also confronted with the relocation of several multinational companies like Apple from China to other destinations in South Asia and India. In such a situation, China could also do with supportive countries like Pakistan. India needs to address this issue.
The Billion Press (Dr Srikanth Kondapalli is Professor in Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University)
