The necessary ecosystem must be developed, including pilot projects, skill development, standards, supportive policies and regulatory ‘sandboxes’ to test new approaches
One thing is clear about the Middle East conflict: this is no “excursion”, as US President Donald Trump described it. For Iran, it represents a struggle for independence, and the likelihood of the country—or other Middle Eastern states—simply conceding is low. The conflict spans Syria, Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, with clear regional and global implications.
Even if peace is achieved, it may not be stable say commentators from Suhasini Haidar in India to Gideon Rachman in the US. We may be entering a new era characterised by firstly, the increasing dominance of force over international rules. Second, with the United States and its allies exercising significant influence over global oil supplies, and with Middle Eastern infrastructure and trade routes under threat, fuel and fertiliser prices are likely to remain elevated, affecting shipping costs, airfares and everyday expenses. Third, jobs and opportunities in the Gulf as well as remittances are likely to decline.
How should Goa respond to this complex situation? Economic security and societal security are paramount. Goa’s challenges are further compounded by two interconnected issues: climate change and inward migration. Climate change necessitates rapid decarbonisation while also bringing heatwaves, floods and coastal erosion. Expanding the use of fossil fuels is not a viable solution; instead, Goa has an opportunity to lead in renewable energy and sustainable technologies. At the same time, migration from crowded and polluted cities is increasing. While this may stimulate economic activity, it also places pressure on natural resources such as water, raises the cost of living and can undercut local labour. With reverse migration from the Gulf a competition for good jobs will arise.
In this emerging global context of conflict, climate stress and migration, some regions will adapt successfully while others may struggle. Goa risks higher living costs due to car dependency and heavy air-conditioning use; the erosion of its peaceful charm through haphazard construction and expanding road networks; and increased unemployment and reduced incomes among locals as Gulf jobs and remittances decline.
Insights from Jared Diamond’s book Upheaval: How Nations Cope with Crises and Change are relevant to these challenges. His study of resilient countries such as Japan, Finland and Chile offers valuable lessons. Of the twelve factors he identifies for successfully managing crises, five are particularly relevant to Goa: acknowledging the crisis and accepting responsibility, learning from historical experience and also, from others, and maintaining flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances. Diamond’s central message is that resilience depends not merely on specific policies but on honesty, adaptability and a willingness to learn.
Honesty requires confronting realities and taking responsibility for action. Pleased to attend a GGCI-World Peace University event recently in honour of Dr Raghunath Mashelkar which said the same. Dr Mashelkar is a former director general of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, and is widely respected for his pioneering work in inclusive innovation and for strengthening the link between science, industry, and society.
With multiple challenges at hand, it is essential to map them carefully and consider the implications and then to find solutions.
Encouragingly, several positive initiatives are emerging in Goa. Businesses are developing net-zero plans, the hospitality sector is investing in sustainable hotels to reduce energy consumption, and non-governmental organisations are fostering community engagement. However, rising risks and fuel costs must also be addressed. Goa needs to focus on creating quality jobs, seizing new economic opportunities and safeguarding existing livelihoods. Community forums, such as citizens’ assemblies, can facilitate informed debate, bridge divides and help identify shared solutions.
Historical experience offers further guidance as does the experience of others. For centuries, Goa achieved self-sufficiency and water security through the creation of khazans—reclaimed lands carved from riverine ecosystems. These systems required careful planning, long-term investment and collaborative governance structures such as the comunidades. Cultural reverence for nature, embodied by deities like Santeri and Shantadurga, reinforced sustainable practices. Chile’s resilience has according to Diamond, included a focus on natural resource management. Goa’s ‘susegad’ way of life—characterised by contentment and harmony with nature—also contributed and can contribute to social and environmental balance.
Adaptability and agility are equally essential. Finland provides a compelling example: following the decline of Nokia, the country redirected its engineering talent into a vibrant startup ecosystem, supported by government investment in education, innovation and digital infrastructure. Japan undertook governance transformations during the Meiji Restoration to confront external pressures.
For Goa, similar adaptability is required to create good jobs and utilise new talent and that of locals and returnees. Promising sectors include tourism, art and design, biomaterials, agriculture, technology and consultancy. To enable their success, the necessary ecosystem must be developed, including pilot projects, skill development, standards, supportive policies and regulatory ‘sandboxes’ to test new approaches. Picking sectors is important to ensure the ecosystem develops. Goa can be a hub of activity in certain areas with a reach across the large India market and beyond. My organisation Materia Verde is focusing on biomaterials as an alternative to carbon-intensive materials like concrete and plastics.
With a considered and strongly collaborative mindset, along with patience, planning and adaptability, Goa can strengthen its resilience. Embracing the discipline and contentment inherent in the susegad ethos will further support this transition. Whether peace returns quickly or remains fragile, these foundational efforts can help secure Goa’s future as a stable and thriving society and economy.
(Maya de Souza has worked at a senior level in public policy for many years in the UK government as well as in Hong Kong and India. A co-founder of Goa-based Materia Verde, she is also a director of Act for Goa.)
