Satish Singh
While overpopulation presents its own set of challenges, a declining population also poses equally significant threats. A consistently low birth rate leads to a reduction in the younger demographic while simultaneously increasing the elderly segment of the population. Currently, many countries around the world are dealing with these demographic shifts, experiencing both declining populations and an ageing population. Notable examples include China, Japan, South Korea, and several European nations such as Germany, Italy, and Lithuania.
The ramifications of a shrinking population are profound, particularly for the workforce. A declining labour force inevitably results in lower economic output, while an ageing population places immense strain on social security systems. This, in turn, affects essential components such as pensions, healthcare, and overall economic development. Furthermore, a shortage of young people and budding entrepreneurs leads to stagnation in innovation and fewer emerging opportunities, ultimately decelerating national progress.
China’s demographic crisis is particularly concerning, as it faces the most significant challenges from an ageing population. Projections indicate that by 2026, for the fourth year running, deaths will outnumber births, a sharp deviation from the population trends of previous decades. Last year, only 7.9 million children were born, while a staggering 11.3 million lives were lost. In 2024, although births rose slightly to 9.5 million, deaths continued to exceed this number, further contributing to a steadily ageing population.
To curb this worrying trend, China has implemented initiatives to increase its population over the past decade. The harsh one-child policy was replaced with a two-child policy, which was further expanded in 2021 to permit a third child. Moreover, the government has introduced various measures to promote childbirth, including a 13% Value-Added Tax (VAT) on condom sales, encouraging parenthood as a patriotic duty, and offering financial incentives such as cash bonuses and subsidised housing for families. Nonetheless, progress has been hindered by China’s fragile economy, which is growing at only 5% and faces high unemployment. Under these tough economic conditions, many young people are understandably reluctant to bear the financial costs of
raising children.
Japan is another country confronting the difficulties of an ageing population, where young adults are increasingly hesitant to start families. Projections forecast a significant decline in population and a further rise in the elderly demographic in the coming years. In South Korea, the fertility rate has fallen to dangerously low levels, sparking a demographic crisis that is concerning for both the present and the future.
Additionally, some European nations, such as Germany, Italy, and Lithuania, are experiencing markedly low fertility rates, which put substantial pressure on their social security systems and worsen their economic challenges. Despite government efforts in countries like Japan and Lithuania to provide financial support and incentives to encourage families to have more children, these measures have so far yielded limited results.
This demographic crisis extends beyond the nations already mentioned. In India, certain states, especially in the southern region such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh, are experiencing similar issues. Here, low birth rates combined with increasing life expectancy have led to a significant rise in the elderly population.
Meanwhile, states like Himachal Pradesh and Punjab are also facing growing concerns about ageing citizens. In contrast, regions such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar maintain a relatively young population. However, estimates indicate that Uttar Pradesh’s elderly population will increase markedly, from 7% in 2011 to an estimated 12% by 2036.
A longitudinal study on ageing, led by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, shows that elderly individuals currently constitute 12% of India’s population. This figure is expected to increase, with projections suggesting the elderly population will reach around 319 million by 2050. Among Indian states, Kerala is the oldest, with its elderly population at 13% in the 2011 census, a figure expected to rise to 23% by 2036. This elevates Kerala’s status as the state with the highest proportion of senior citizens in the country. Tamil Nadu follows closely, likely maintaining its position, with a considerably larger elderly population than the
national average. The ongoing trend of young people migrating from the northern and eastern states of India to the southern regions, namely Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, is mainly driven by the pursuit of better employment opportunities, improved educational prospects, and higher living standards. This migration phenomenon has triggered significant social changes, impacting both the regions from which these young individuals leave and the areas they
settle in.
Migration fosters a rich cultural exchange seen in everyday life, like food, language, and clothing. It promotes language interactions and helps spread languages across regions. However, this blending of cultures also creates challenges; social and cultural conflicts often occur, particularly between locals and migrants over language, food customs, and work practices. Young migrants, especially those from rural or less developed areas, are increasingly adopting modern technologies and lifestyles. This exposure broadens their awareness of important issues like human rights, gender equality, and community service, encouraging them to engage in initiatives that foster social change. The trend of young people leaving their family homes to live independently is transforming traditional family structures, resulting in new household dynamics. Notably, a rise in female migration is also shifting gender roles, empowering women to seek independence and assume new responsibilities.
In conclusion, it is vital to recognise that globally, a declining overall population paired with a rising elderly demographic presents substantial challenges. This demographic shift is likely to place pressure on healthcare services, pension schemes, and social security systems in the future, potentially hindering economic growth and development. Therefore, it is important to address these emerging issues proactively and thoughtfully to minimise their impact
(The writer is a senior banking and economic columnist based in Mumbai.)
