Since the signing of the ‘Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership’ in October 2000, the summit meetings between the Prime Minister of India and the President of the Russian Federation are the highest institutionalised dialogue mechanisms, where both countries take stock of their relations at the highest level and impart direction and impetus to them. The visits alternate between the leaders of each country. Since the Indian Prime Minister visited Russia last year, on July 8-9, 2024, the next visit by the Russian President is expected this year.
Following the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022, Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation made Russia look for partners outside the West. Russian President Vladimir Putin has used every opportunity to meet with leaders in forums like BRICS, SCO and G-20. But more useful and helpful are standalone bilateral meets. Russia has tried both, multilateral and bilateral formats.
In 2022 itself, all the five Central Asian leaders attended the Victory Day Parade in Moscow, which is held every year on May 9 to commemorate victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. This year, Russia has invited leaders from several other “friendly” countries including India and China to the 80th anniversary of the victory.
For Russia, this commemoration has acquired special meaning following the war in Ukraine. One of the main goals of Russia’s Special Military Operations in Ukraine has been “de-Nazification”. The invitation to leaders of friendly countries is not just aimed demonstrating the reliability of Russia’s partnership but also to give a message that fascists still use the garb of nationalism to break multi-ethnic and multi-cultural countries. Thus, the fight against them is still relevant and essential.
But more than meeting on the sidelines of multilateral events, the annual strategic partnership meet format has been more productive. India-Russia relations have grown from strength to strength on this basis. Since 2000, the highest leadership of both countries has been meeting until the start of the Ukraine war. After a gap of two years Modi visited Russia in 2024 and this year the visit from Putin is due.
In 2021, when Putin visited India last, there was a focus on transportation corridors like the International North-South Corridor or INSTC and Vladivostok-Chennai corridor. The meeting the next year in Samarkand (SCO meet) took place against the background of the Ukraine war. Russia’s interests were mainly focussed on how to make friendly countries understand its position on Ukraine. Modi in Samarkand made the famous statement that “now is not an age of wars”. Modi’s meeting with Putin took place during the BRICS Summit in Kazan in 2024, which followed the 22nd Annual Strategic Partnership Summit in July 2024.
These meetings help keep trade and economic relations going regardless of sanctions against Russia. India kept up its Russian oil purchases despite calls from the West to stop the imports. India has never voted against Russia in the UN on the Ukraine issue, which has been highly appreciated by Moscow.
The next meeting of the two leaders in 2025 will be held in India in the backdrop of some major shifts in the global economic and political environment. In political terms, Russia is being pressed by the US to reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine. While Russia has shown a desire to end the war, it is not willing to do so at the cost of the gains it has made in three years, nor at the cost of its other core security interests like opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine. Notwithstanding the Easter Ceasefire declared by Russia (30 hours on 19-20 April), a real ceasefire seems to be still eluding the two countries. The US President from time to time threatens to impose more tariffs if Russia delays the
ceasefire agreement.
Today the US tariff threat hangs over all the trading partners of America. This includes India as well, which despite being willing and working to negotiate a trade deal with the new US administration, is not sure what the future will hold given the unpredictable nature of the US leader.
Countries are aware that making concessions would lead to demands for further concessions, which may be detrimental to their economies. To cushion themselves from more shocks, India and Russia need to further expand trade and economic relations among themselves as well as with other countries. For example, China has recently been negotiating with Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia to expand bilateral trade. India and Russia have to strengthen their trade and investment ties, with Indian companies investing in Russia’s oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and IT sectors, and Russian companies investing in India’s energy, infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. All these have to be done without antagonising the US. And that requires deft negotiations and strategies.
The global geopolitical, geo-economic and strategic contexts have changed since Trump became President. Russia is no longer an outcaste, which the US is engaging to get a deal on Ukraine. Moscow can be helpful in talks for a US-Iran nuclear deal. US also wants energy deals with Russia. In this background, Putin’s visit to New Delhi would receive much global attention. Since India is also close to the US, the Americans may indicate to New Delhi what they wish from the talks with Russia.
Modi may or may not visit Moscow for the May Day Parade due to other engagements on May 9. But what is more important is the visit of Putin this year in the Strategic Partnership format. This is imperative not just from the point of trade and economy, but also for the possible involvement of India and other partners in BRICS in the post-ceasefire agreement if it happens at all.
Given Russia’s opposition to European peacekeepers, those from other countries may be acceptable to Moscow. Even UN peacekeeping would require neutral powers like India to step in, which would be acceptable to both, Moscow and Kyiv.
The Billion Press
(Dr Ajay Patnaik is a retired
professor, Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University.)
