Abdul Wahab Khan | Panaji
In an assessment of air pollution’s health and economic impacts across India, Goa has emerged as an exception to national trends, with researchers projecting that the coastal state could witness a decline in air pollution-related premature deaths by mid-century, even as most other Indian states face increasing health burdens.
This new comprehensive study, published in the journal npj Clean Air, is the first detailed analysis of how climate actions aligned with the Paris Agreement’s 2°C warming target could deliver substantial co-benefits for public health across Indian states.
The study, titled ‘air pollution health and economic co-benefits of keeping warming below 2°C in India’, has examined 23 sub-regions including the coastal, peninsula, and Indo-Gangetic zones, comparing outcomes under two future pathways — a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a 2°C warming scenario (2°C-WS).
Goa, along with Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh, have emerged at the forefront in reaping the highest economic gains relative to its GDP, with a projected benefit of 0.78 per cent by 2050 — the highest in India.
The research has projected that India could prevent 0.77 million premature deaths annually by mid-century if global warming is limited to 2°C.
The team has sought to quantify how India’s climate mitigation efforts could directly improve air quality, health outcomes, and economic productivity.
“The current trajectory of emissions will increase warming and deteriorate air quality, leading to severe health and economic impacts,” the authors have said.
The study was led by Prof Sagnik Dey, Dr Debajit Sarkar, Fahad Imam, Alok Kumar of IIT Delhi, and was conducted in collaboration with scientists Pallav Purohit, Gregor Kiesewetter, and Zbigniew Klimont from International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, and Sourangsu Chowdhury from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Norway, and Andrea Pozzer from the Max Planck Institute of Chemistry, Germany.
The researchers used the GAINS (greenhouse gas-air pollution interactions and synergies) model developed by IIASA, integrated with the global burden of disease (GBD) framework.
The model simulated PM2.5 concentrations for 2015 as a baseline and projected future outcomes for 2050 under both BAU and 2°C-WS pathways. Data were drawn from Indian census projections, the global change assessment model (GCAM), and satellite-derived PM2.5 datasets. The analysis incorporated socio-demographic factors such as population aging, mortality rates, and economic productivity to calculate disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and GDP impacts.
Under the BAU pathway, annual PM2.5 exposure would increase in several northern states, while under the 2°C scenario, exposure would dramatically drop to between 7.4 µg/m³ in Kerala and 84.4 µg/m³ in Delhi.
The researchers estimated that stringent emission controls could prevent 18.7 million DALYs and yield Euros 18.9 billion in annual economic gains for India by 2050.
Goa stands out as a unique case: despite its high socioeconomic index, its small population and waste management initiatives mean that population aging and exposure reduction together yield a net decline in air pollution-related deaths.
“In Goa, the effect of population growth would be outweighed by the changes in the other three drivers—reduced PM2.5 exposure, lower baseline mortality, and smaller population size,” the report has noted.
India is one of the world’s most polluted and populous nations, yet little was known about how future warming limits could influence PM2.5-driven mortality and economic productivity across states. The researchers have said “the current trajectory of emissions will increase warming and deteriorate air quality in India, leading to severe health and economic impacts,” prompting the need for a comprehensive state-wise assessment.
The researchers integrated the greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies model simulated sectoral contributions of particulate matter exposure into the GBD framework, examining premature deaths and disability adjusted life years across different age groups and disease categories.
The GAINS model simulated PM2.5 exposure at a 10-km scale and incorporated emissions from domestic, industrial, transport, waste, biomass burning, and natural sources.
The team has validated these simulations against satellite-derived measurements showing strong correlation.
The results have revealed stark contrasts across states. Under the BAU scenario, India’s annual pollution-related premature deaths could rise from 0.72 million in 2015 to 2.12 million by 2050, while DALYs may double to 51.6 million.
Under the 2°C-warming-limit scenario, deaths drop sharply to 1.35 million, offering a prevention potential of 0.77 million annual deaths and 18.7 million DALYs.
However, adopting stringent climate actions aligned with the 2°C warming scenario could prevent 0.77 million premature deaths annually and deliver economic benefits of Euros 18.9 billion.
While heavily populated states such as Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, and Bihar face worsening PM2.5 exposure and will gain the largest absolute health benefits from climate mitigation, Goa’s advantage arises from cleaner baseline conditions and demographic contraction.
The study has noted that “Goa would possess the highest relative share of economic gains”, highlighting stark regional disparities.
The study has also highlighted that while India’s National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) aims to reduce PM2.5 levels by 40 per cent by 2026, this is insufficient without aligning climate policy.
“Emission controls in domestic, energy, and waste sectors would be pivotal,” the authors have emphasised, pointing to the interconnectedness of climate change mitigation and public health.
The researchers have noted that population aging and baseline mortality rates would significantly influence future health burdens, necessitating strengthened healthcare infrastructure alongside environmental interventions.
