“Alliances are written in ink when interests align and in pencil when they do not.” In the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, US-India relations have entered a period of turbulence. Washington’s recalibration of its South Asia Policy sparked by New Delhi’s public rejection of President Donald Trump’s claim to have brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan has triggered a cascade of moves that could leave India strategically cornered. President Trump’s recent imposition of additional tariffs on India, and his public justification citing India’s continued purchase of Russian oil masks deeper, more complex undercurrents that are driving this apparent U-turn in American foreign policy. India, if not careful, could find itself playing a role scripted in Washington rather than one it defines for itself.
The US shift in South Asia is not occurring in isolation. Simultaneously, Washington has been working on a framework to end hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. This would pave the way for Russia’s gradual reintegration into the global mainstream, but with a clear condition to distance itself from China. This manoeuvre aims to disrupt the current Russia-China alignment, which is widely seen as more of a marriage of convenience than of choice. If successful, it could reset Moscow’s calculus, leaving Beijing relatively more isolated and giving Washington greater flexibility in managing its strategic competition with China. For India, the implications are profound as a less-dependent Russia may no longer be the reliable partner it has been for decades, especially in defence and energy.
One of the subtler but significant aims of the current US policy appears to be the deliberate fragmentation of any international grouping that challenges American authority. The US scepticism towards the European Union has been evident, with repeated calls questioning its relevance in the evolving global order. Similar tactics can be observed in the Indo-Pacific with respect to the Quad where US focus has shifted towards bilateral defence and trade deals rather than strengthening multilateral institutional frameworks. This, in effect, mirrors a broader US approach of weakening regional groupings like BRICS that could challenge American primacy.
Under Trump’s presidency, the BRICS member states face punitive tariffs, which, coupled with strategic pressures, may push these nations to prioritise bilateral gains over bloc solidarity, undermining the collective leverage of BRICS. Without BRICS, New Delhi’s ability to project itself as a leader of the Global South will be significantly curtailed.
Washington has intensified its engagement with Pakistan, signalling a reset in bilateral ties after years of strained relations. The US-Pakistan thaw serves multiple American objectives. Beyond placing strategic pressure on India, it provides Washington with an indirect channel to engage with China via Pakistan’s deep economic and military ties with Beijing. It also positions Pakistan as a potential pivot in managing developments in Afghanistan and as a counterweight to Iran, which continues to defy US sanctions and influence. For India, this translates into a more challenging Western front. A resourced and diplomatically buoyant Pakistan, backed by American engagement, would be emboldened in its strategic posturing towards India, both in conventional and sub-conventional domains.
The evolving regional landscape is increasingly unfavourable to New Delhi. To the North, China’s aggressive posture continues unabated. On other borders, relations with Bangladesh have cooled over regime change, trade disputes and migration concerns; Nepal’s political tilt towards China has deepened; Myanmar’s instability limits cooperative security arrangements; and Sri Lanka’s economic vulnerabilities have made it more susceptible to Chinese influence. This encirclement, while not yet absolute, is tightening.
With two hostile powers on its primary land frontiers and adversarial tendencies in other neighbours, India’s strategic space is shrinking. This evolving reality leaves India with a narrowing set of dependable partners in its immediate neighbourhood and exposes India to the risk of being manoeuvred into a position where US diplomatic, economic and military support becomes indispensable.
If current trends continue, India could find itself in a precarious position surrounded by hostile or adversarial neighbours, stripped of dependable great-power allies and increasingly reliant on the US for diplomatic, economic and security backing. Such a dependency would inevitably limit India’s foreign policy autonomy, forcing it to align with American positions even when they conflict with its own strategic interests. This would be particularly concerning for India’s long-term vision of Viksit Bharat 2047, which depends on an independent, diversified and resilient global engagement strategy.
India cannot afford to be a passive observer in this unfolding dynamic situation. A robust counterstrategy is a must which includes diversifying strategic partnerships beyond the US, deepening economic integration with EU, ASEAN, Africa, Middle East and Latin America to offset trade pressures and reinforcing ties with middle powers like France, Japan, and Australia to maintain strategic autonomy. Revive neighbourhood-first diplomacy with economic incentives, cultural diplomacy and development partnerships to counter Chinese and Pakistani influence. Accelerate indigenous defence production and technology development to reduce vulnerability to external supply chains. Use India’s cultural, technological and democratic appeal to build influence in the Global South.
The emerging global order is being shaped by the subtle art of strategic fragmentation. For India, the greatest risk is to manage isolation in an environment where options are few and dependencies many. For India, the path ahead will require a delicate balance of engaging with
the US where interests align, while building sufficient strategic depth to resist coercion. Failure to do so could see India’s role in the global order diminished to that of a subordinate partner in a unipolar system dominated by Washington.
(Brigadier Anil John Alfred Pereira, SM (Retd) is a veteran from Goa who served the nation with distinction for 32 years.)
