‘Moist deciduous forests drop to 22.64% in 2022’
Abdul Wahab Khan
Panaji: Scientists have mapped the troubling forest structure dynamics in Goa, revealing a steep decline in forest health in a study. They have called for an urgent need for ecological safeguards.
The study used over five decades (1973-2022) of satellite data and spatial modelling to quantify forest cover loss, fragmentation, and its cascading impacts on ecosystem services in the central Western Ghats region—an ecological treasure trove that includes Goa.
“Total forest cover declined by 3.75 per cent during the post-1990s due to market forces associated with globalisation,” the report has said, warning of the increasing urbanisation and shrinking evergreen forests.
The research, titled ‘Insights into the linkages of forest structure dynamics with ecosystem services’, and led by Prof TV Ramachandra and team from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru and Kuvempu University, Shivamogga employed cutting-edge machine learning to track forest degradation and quantify the economic value of Goa’s vanishing green spaces.
The study modelled two scenarios using the CA-Markov and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario and an Agent-Based Simulation scenario incorporating ecological and social drivers to visualise future risks and formulate adaptive land management strategies.
“The AHP scenario, characterised by multi-criteria evaluation, presents more robust land use estimates than the BAU scenario,” it adds.
According to the research, the evergreen forest cover, once rejuvenated in the 1970s with protective policies, is projected to fall to 10.98 per cent by 2038 under AHP if current trends persist. Moist deciduous forests, too, are in peril, declining from 27.81 per cent in 1977 to 22.64 per cent in 2022 which will further decline to 19.74 per cent in 2038 under AHP model.
“Dry deciduous and shrubland areas increased notably, from 477.03 sq km (12.89 per cent) in 1973 to 616.99 sq km (16.67 per cent) in 2022 and will increase to 20.52 per cent in 2038 under BAU scenario,” indicating degradation and vegetation shift toward more arid landscapes.
Urbanisation is set to intensify in both models—rising from 4.89 per cent in 2022 to 6.31 per cent in the AHP scenario—while mining area is projected to rise from 0.61 per cent (2022) to 0.7 per cent (BAU) and 0.84 per cent (AHP) by 2038. Exotic species plantations increase from 2.43 per cent to 2.56 per cent (BAU) and 5.23 per cent (AHP), challenging sustainability.
Mangroves and wetlands rise in BAU (1.69 per cent, 2.41 per cent) but fall in AHP (1.06 per cent, 1.85 per cent). Waterbodies drop to 3.30 per cent (BAU) and 4.19 per cent (AHP). Agriculture expands in BAU (9.34 per cent), declines in AHP (6.65 per cent).
The loss of dense, intact forests not only reduces biodiversity but threatens the ecosystem’s ability to regulate climate, soil, and water.
“The carbon sequestration potential of forests in Goa… highlights the storage of 56,131.16 Gg of carbon, which accounts for Rs 373.47 billion (US $4.49 billion),” the study has noted. This figure underscores the monetary value forests provide by absorbing carbon dioxide, thus mitigating climate change.
One of the major strengths of the study is its quantification of Goa’s total ecosystem supply value (TESV)—a holistic economic measure combining provisioning (timber, food), regulating (carbon capture, flood control), and cultural services (recreation, heritage).
“The total ecosystem supply value… accounts for Rs 481.76 billion per year,” the report adds.
The research also prioritised ecologically sensitive regions (ESRs), categorising 54.41 per cent of Goa’s forested land as highly sensitive zones (ESR1 and ESR2). These areas, the researchers have argued, must be shielded from any form of anthropogenic activity.
“ESRs with attribute information can be geo-visualised… depicting the highest ecologically sensitive zones,” the study has said, using a GIS-powered Western Ghats Spatial Decision Support System.
The study comes at a time when Goa faces pressure from real estate, mining, and monoculture plantations.
“Unplanned developmental activities… contributed to rapid urbanisation leading to sprawl,” it has warned, linking ecological fragility directly to economic choices.
The authors have recommended integrating ecosystem service valuation into state-level GDP accounting, echoing global calls for a ‘Green GDP’.
They have stressed that “natural capital accounting will aid in ascertaining the economic and social significance of natural ecosystems.”
The findings present a strong case for policymakers to reassess land-use strategies.
“Forest ecosystems in Goa provide diverse services vital for human well-being… valuing these services is crucial for prudent management,” the study has said.
