The most important reason why the party won big was law and order, more specifically ‘female insecurity’. When women decide to vote against political outfit, it gets ‘wiped out’
On May 4, the day the results of Assembly elections in West Bengal and three other states and a Union territory were out, a senior person asked me how I got my figure of 200+ seats for the Bhartiya Janata Party right while sitting in Panaji. Before we go into the reasons, let me say that on May 4, it was not exactly a victory for a party, person or state; it was a victory for Mother India. Finally, the ‘gateway of India’, through which infiltrators from across the border were pouring in and thereby creating a ‘dedicated vote bank’, will be closed. Why I say it was a victory for Mother India is that all these infiltrators would enter India through West Bengal and then spread all over India. This way, they would create a very serious demographic imbalance and also destabilise India and further make all Indians unsafe.
The dacoity involving the famous industrialist in Dona Paula was allegedly carried out by such infiltrators.
The most important reason why the BJP won big was law and order, more specifically ‘female insecurity’. When 50 per cent of the voters (women) decide to vote against a party, the party does not merely get “voted out”; it gets “wiped out”. All women from minority communities may not vote for the BJP, but even a 10 per cent swing can change things.
Moreover, not only the females, but their male relatives too voted in the interest of the women at home.
Secondly, law and order concerns businessmen and professionals who want to carry on their business in peace and harmony. The ‘cut money’ (extortion) culture was so rampant that businessmen and their families decisively voted out the ruling party. Hence, I assume businessmen belonging to all religions will vote for peace and harmony. To assume that all Muslims will vote against the BJP is being too simplistic. I have elucidated why Muslim women, the youth and Muslim businessmen would vote for the BJP. Many pollsters got this wrong.
The third factor for the BJP victory was anti-incumbency of 15 years and bad governance, which lacked vision. Industry had largely fled West Bengal over the years. Hardly any quality jobs existed, and there was a lack of development. All this upset the youth. There was no hope. And just then, the most powerful person in India spoke to the youth promising change.
The youth believed Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ did work extensively. Bengalis had seen how a ‘double engine’ Sarkar works in neighbouring states, and they opted for it.
There was extreme appeasement and vote bank politics. This resulted in violence and fear and kept the other community on its toes. I’m told that there was 85 per cent consolidation of Hindu votes. Atrocities against Hindus were rampant. I’m told by my source on the ground that about 1,000 females were brutalised and 300 men were murdered. I saw an 80-year-old political analyst saying on a national TV channel that there was no difference between the “political party goons” and the “law enforcing agency”. The only visible difference was that the law enforcers wore uniforms.
The Trinamool Congress government was doling out Rs 1,500 per month to women. This dole had already been digested and was no longer attractive. The BJP’s promise of a Rs 3,000 per month dole proved doubly effective.
The special intensive revision of the state’s electoral rolls played a role in cleaning up the voter list, which would otherwise be used for ‘chapa voting’ — voting in place of a dead person through ‘booth capturing’.
Also, some voters would be threatened not to vote, and in their place, someone else would cast a vote. The Election Commission of India and central security forces stopped this very effectively.
The BJP’s election juggernaut, along with its associates like the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, was determined to capture West Bengal, which was becoming ‘security threat No. 1’ for India due to infiltration.
It was precisely for this that Shah camped in the state for weeks. This juggernaut deserves huge credit for its relentless, systematic campaign, which was conducted in the face of all the violence unleashed against it.
However, the persons who “take the cake” are the most unsung heroes, whom all took for granted — the central security forces. The forces toiled day and night at great personal risk, ensuring that the elections were free of fear. Hence, every voter gained the confidence to come out and vote. Thus, no one “else” voted in their place.
Without the central security forces, the West Bengal Assembly elections would have been the same as in the past.
The EC, particularly Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, did a splendid job against all odds. Changing the top brass of the civil administration and the police gave a lot of confidence to the voters as well as the cops themselves. The onslaught on the CEC was humongous and continuous. Add to that, he had to face the Supreme Court of India now and then for cases filed in respect of the Assembly elections, thus using up his time and energy.
Where did some pollsters go wrong in predicting between 100 and 200 seats for the BJP? It so happens that when you are on the “ground”, whatever you “see” and “hear”, you take as gospel truth, getting carried away by your “political inclinations”. Worse, you begin to see that as “ground reality”.
All in all, the brave Bengalis came out of their comfort zone and voted out lawlessness, lack of development, unemployment and threats to their very existence. And in the process, they saved Mother India. Besides saving Mother India, they saved our mothers, sisters and daughters not only in West Bengal but all over the country.
(Santosh R Kenkre is a chartered accountant and political observer.)
