AP
Washington
President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will not order a resumption of military strikes on Iran before the Nov 3 midterm elections in the United States.
Trump, while stumping for Republicans this week, has hinted that he was confident that an endgame to the war could come in the days before or after the election, while also hinting that he remained open to resuming full-scale military operations against Iran.
For weeks, Trump has been threatening that a post-midterm election escalation in the seven-month-old war remains a viable option, despite his initial promises to Americans of a military campaign that would last a matter of weeks.
But Trump in a social media post on Thursday said the US “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd”.
Trump added that his team has been “having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
The US and Iran signed a short-lived interim agreement in June, intended to establish a 60-day ceasefire and framework for a permanent peace deal.
The deal signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian collapsed within weeks amid renewed military actions and disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical water which one-fifth world’s oil flowed through before the war.
Negotiations had appeared at a standstill since Trump late last month publicly rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the strait within seven days if the US met certain conditions.
Iran, however, said last week they had received a US counterproposal. And Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi earlier on Thursday said he expected Tehran would offer a formal reply within days.
Trump on Wednesday during a campaign rally in San Antonio, Texas, said that his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, has continued indirect negotiations with Iranian officials.
But at the same time, Trump suggested he had mixed feelings about ending the war at this point.
“I think the deal isn’t really something that I want to do, but they’re willing to offer us anything to stop,” Trump said.
Trump believes that America is gaining leverage as the US military is having greater success in helping oil tankers traverse the Strait of Hormuz and get Gulf allies’ oil to market, while a Navy blockade is shutting down Iran’s own oil exports.
Iran has lost its near chokehold over oil flows through the vital waterway with US Central Command shepherding oil tankers through the strait at night with their location systems turned off.
That with the help of Gulf pipelines that skirt the strait, has allowed Gulf countries to export oil at nearly prewar levels.
But Iran has ramped up attacks on tankers passing through the strait in recent days. And overall, ship traffic remains well below prewar levels, as are shipments of liquid natural gas and fuel products.
Tanker operators willing to risk running the gauntlet under Central Command’s protection are in some cases charging rates of USD 1 million a day or more, shipping analysts say.
The situation has become further complicated as Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s government have launched a military campaign aimed at driving Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another critical Mideast trade route for oil and other goods.
The Houthis, in turn, are targeting Saudi airports and key infrastructure in the kingdom with drone and missile strikes.
Trump’s post comes as the military has dispatched more resources to the region. US officials have said a third aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, and thousands of troops aboard it and accompanying ships could arrive as early as the end of October.
Trump’s announcement was made the same day the USS Abraham Lincoln was due to arrive to its home port in San Diego after a record-long deployment in support of the Iran war. There have been reports of crew stress and poor mental health, as well as supply shortages, including food and hygiene products.
The USS George Washington, which is usually based in Asia, relieved the Lincoln in August. The other aircraft carrier in the Middle East, the USS George HW Bush, has been deployed for about six months, but it pulled into Phuket, Thailand, for a port visit several days ago.
