Always poll ready, the BJP has already begun reviewing ground reality in the state
It’s an election year and political parties are gearing up for the finale. The present Assembly’s term ends only at the end of March 2027. However, there are speculations of early polls. Normally, no ruling political party would go to the polls three to four months early. In 2012, the election was held on March 3, in 2017 on February 4, and the last Assembly election was held on February 14. We’ll know after some time whether the election will be held as per schedule or not.
Irrespective, the BJP is one party that is always ready for any electoral battle. Being a cadre-based organisation, it can mobilise its karyakartas at any time. It has well-oiled election machinery, and its leaders know the importance of every vote.
Another important aspect is monitoring the performance of its government and its MLAs. What matters is the public perception of the MLAs’ performance in the last year before the elections. Finally, it’s a question of numbers. Hence, the party will look for alternatives if a sitting MLA’s chances of retaining the seat are not bright. Normally, no ruling party will deny its sitting MLAs tickets unless they are involved in a major controversy or fraud, or if their performance is very poor. The BJP in Goa has 27 MLAs and, with its allies, its strength is 32 in the House of 39. The Ponda seat remains vacant since former chief minister Ravi Naik expired in October last year. When you have a large flock, it is not possible to keep every MLA happy through development works, and that is being seen in the current set-up.
Secondly, factionalism exists in a big party, though the BJP’s does not come out in public. Also, when a party grows big, new aspirants for tickets emerge. Long ago, the BJP could not get good candidates to file nominations. At present, it has ample candidates. Politics is not as simple a game as it looks. To survive and thrive is not easy. How hard you worked in the past to keep the party flag flying high no longer seems as important as loyalty to the leadership. For many MLAs, the main opposition is from within the party rather than from opposition parties.
On Sunday, BJP national general secretary (organisation) B L Santhosh held a series of meetings with ministers, MLAs and core committee members to assess the situation ahead of the Assembly polls. Members reportedly informed Santhosh about the ground reality in many constituencies, while some complained of factionalism. A few also complained that new aspirants with political patronage from senior leaders have more clout in their constituencies. Santhosh is a veteran master strategist. He understands Goa politics well. However, Goa is a small state with a small electorate, and it is not very easy to take hard decisions. But considering the ground reality, the party may have to. The BJP has been in power in Goa for 15 years and is, expectedly, facing anti-incumbency. In 2022, the situation was no different but, eventually, with several factors playing out, the BJP, led by Chief Minister Pramod Sawant, won 20 seats. To fight anti-incumbency, there may not be a better party than the BJP. The exercise being conducted by Santhosh also shows how much importance the central BJP leadership gives to Goa. The role of the opposition parties in capitalising on the simmering anger will be worth watching in the next few weeks. On record, the opposition may have only seven MLAs, but the BJP’s situation is not as rosy as it appears.
