Five-year study identifies several factors, including proximity to human settlements
Abdul Wahab Khan
Panaji: According to a five-year study published in the Journal of Environmental Management, nearly 44 per cent of Goa’s forest cover falls under the “very highly susceptible” category for wildfire risk. It identified multiple factors contributing to wildfire risk, with forest type, proximity to human
settlements, slope characteristics, and vegetation health being the most significant. Other factors included elevation, topographic wetness index, distance to roads, and land surface temperature.
The study found that Goa’s forest fire susceptibility has risen significantly over the past decade, largely due to climate change. “Forest fires have significantly increased over the last decade due to shifts in rainfall patterns, warmer summers, and long spells of dry weather events in the coastal regions,” the report stated.
It analysed data from 2017 to 2023, during which 521 hectares of Goa’s forests were affected by fires, primarily
surface fires, with a major blaze in 2023 destroying 500 hectares of dense forest.
Titled ‘Forest fire susceptibility mapping using multi-criteria decision making and machine learning models in the Western Ghats of India’, the research was conducted by scientists from the ICAR-Central Coastal Agricultural Research Institute in Goa in collaboration with Mississippi State University and Kansas State University.
The findings indicate that 44.15 per cent of the state’s forest cover is classified as ‘very highly susceptible’ to wildfires, followed by 21.35 per cent categorised as ‘highly susceptible’ and 15.62 per cent as ‘moderately susceptible’.
The researchers—Bappa Das, AR Uthappa, Anurag Raizada, Parveen Kumar, Prakash Jha, and PV Vara Prasad—used a combination of remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS), analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and machine learning models to identify high-risk areas.
Historically, Goa’s forests were considered relatively fire-resistant due to annual rainfall exceeding 3,500 mm and intermittent post-monsoon showers. However, the study warned that “changing climatic conditions, including extended dry periods and erratic rainfall, have made these forests highly susceptible to fire.”
The research also highlights human encroachment and infrastructure development as major contributors to forest fire risks. The report states, “Distance to settlement emerged as a critical factor, indicating that human activity near forest edges significantly elevates fire risks.” Additionally, areas with drier vegetation, steeper slopes, and higher temperatures were found to be more vulnerable.
The findings align with global trends, where climate change is prolonging fire seasons and intensifying blaze severity.
The study said that conventional fire detection methods face limitations in Goa’s terrain and that satellite-based monitoring was important for early detection. “In view of the large area potentially susceptible to forest fire, there is an urgent need to implement preventive measures for fire control in the identified zones,” the researchers stated, calling for immediate action to mitigate risks and protect Goa’s biodiversity-rich forests.
