Nilesh Borde
Friday the 13th… oh! God, what a day for a management student like me. The CCP election yielded a textbook-style result. It demonstrated the flaw in every predictive model. It defined and underlined every theory in Management across consumer behaviour, Brand Equity, and Strategy.
Why were the predictive models flawed? A lot of them were based on voter statements, such as:
“He is ruling the CCP for 25 years and now it’s time to change, pointing to strong incumbency”, “Smart city was not smart after all”, “There is one to one fight and the votes are not getting split”, “Mother MLA, Father minister and son mayor would not be tolerated”, “CCP is mismanaged”, “Garbage is an issue”, “what kind of capital city is Panaji with beggars all around”, “Need new faces who are honest and intelligent”, “Casinos in Mandovi and now the Junta House. Is this Goa’s capital or a gambling capital of the country?”, “selling Goa and its culture with section 39A”, and I can go on, but the net result? 27-3.
Wow! Fascinating and more than that, intriguing. Kudos to Atanasio (Babush) Monserrate on a thumping victory at the CCP elections.
Why do I call it a great learning experience? Why is the CCP result a typical textbook result underlining the established management theories?
First, the classic VRIN framework, which emphasises that Babush Monserrate is not merely a politician but a strong “brand”. The strength of this brand comes from the fact that it is Valuable (because of the way he strategises). Rare (no one else has his election skills). Inimitable (No one can replicate what Babush does). Whereas he can replicate his model of winning elections across the neighbouring constituencies because they are nimble, agile and adaptive) and non-substitutable (no one can substitute Babush). A lot of people may say there are others, such as Vishwajit Rane at Valpoi, who are in a similar position, but the difference is that Vishwajeet has a strong, undiluted and substitutable legacy that has given him a monopoly at Valpoi and Poriem. This will be true with Rohit Monserrate in Panaji as well, as he gets the chance to carry forward Babush’s legacy. However, the legacy that Babush encounters is that of the great Manohar Parrikar. So, in a way, Manohar Parrikar, Babush Monserrate and Pratapsingh
Rane are examples of “the brand” in politics. This happens when proper succession is in place. Babush, too, is grooming his son Rohit to substitute him in the near future, an extremely difficult task. Unfortunately, Manohar Parrikar was not able to create a succession plan.
So, this strong brand has made Panaji and Taliegao constituencies (markets) absolutely inaccessible to others, making it an extremely resilient and steady brand in the face of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA). This was absolutely evident in these elections, with the contest largely one-on-one and the votes not split.
And why is it a steady brand in a VUCA scenario? Because of various reasons. He has perfect Product-Market Fit. He chose every candidate (Product) very skillfully. He always brought it to the notice of every voter, whoever the candidate may be, I (Babush) am in charge. So, you are not voting for the candidate per se, but for Babush. This gave consumers (voters) a perfect product (candidate). The opposition was unable to convey this feeling.
He had a perfect go-to-market strategy. So, in strategy, the market is divided into Macro (National, where you choose MP), Meso (State, where you choose MLA), and Micro (Local bodies like City Corporations, Municipalities, or Panchayats). When you mix these markets, especially where consumers (voters) are learned and educated, they know very well which issues concern which markets. Anecdotal evidence shows that while the opposition spoke of war in the Middle East, Babush spoke of how each household would get LPG. He knew his market very well and thus was able to connect.
What this did was to identify all factors within the perimeter of Classic Michael Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, making his position very strong in a VUCA environment. He has proven that because of VRIN, he has an extremely good grip over the market (constituency), which reduces the threat of new entry (whether it’s fragmented or United opposition, no one can stand the Brand Babush thus raising the barrier for new entrant), what this does is almost throws out the possibility of threat of rivalry to the bottom of river Mandovi. The consumer (voter)’s bargaining power is very low, as evidenced by the margins of victory and defeat. The abysmal few defeats were a matter of luck, but victories reminded us of the thumping T20 World Cup final when NZ was decimated. The supplier’s (BJP’s) bargaining power is low, too. If the BJP wishes to win Panaji, Babush has made himself a force to be reckoned with; the party depends on him, and he has delivered. But if one notices, Babush has conveniently navigated his way in and out of parties, because he is aware that Brand Babush doesn’t need a party to be in power. He has proven this hypothesis time and again; his Party Attrition rate is probably the highest in the state. And the threat of a substitute? Again, as an astute politician, Babush has entered the substitute market himself by owning substitutes (Rohit) as well.
So, Babush has created Brand Equity for which people are willing to pay a premium. He has made himself invincible and untouchable by competition. Babush to Panaji, Taliegao and St Cruz, is what Colgate and Palmolive was to the toothpaste market (C&P held 50% market share). What is the secret of his staying on top and in control? His entire aura of being grounded and alert to the happenings around, and not allowing any competition to emerge.
(The writer is professor in finance and strategy at Goa Business School)
