Panaji: The southwest monsoon is likely to make an early onset over Kerala on May 26 this year, arriving nearly a week ahead of the normal onset date of June 1, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The forecast has raised expectations of an early advance of rain-bearing systems along the west coast, including Goa, where weather activity has already begun intensifying with thunderstorms and gusty winds forecast until May 18.
In its official forecast, the IMD noted that the onset over Kerala marks the formal arrival of southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland, signalling the transition from the harsh summer season to widespread rainfall. The department generated this prediction using an indigenously developed statistical model with an error margin of plus or minus four days. “This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ±4 days,” the IMD said.
The development is being closely watched in Goa, as the state depends heavily on monsoon for agriculture, groundwater recharge, reservoir storage, and kharif cultivation.
According to meteorologists, an early onset over Kerala often helps the monsoon current progress rapidly northward along the Konkan coast, potentially bringing pre-monsoon rainfall to Goa earlier than usual.
Meanwhile, the Meteorological Centre in Goa has issued district-wise warning maps indicating thunderstorm activity over North and South Goa districts from May 15 to May 17.
According to the forecast, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds reaching 30 to 40 kmph are likely during the late afternoon and night hours at isolated places across the state. The warning level has been marked yellow for the first three days, indicating a “be updated” alert, before conditions are expected to ease from May 18 onwards.
Weather officials stated that the current instability is linked to moisture incursion and rising pre-monsoon convection over the Arabian Sea. Residents have been advised to remain cautious during thunderstorm hours, especially fishermen, motorists and those in open areas vulnerable to lightning strikes.
The IMD also highlighted the strong performance of its onset forecasting system, releasing a verification table that showed recent forecasts closely matched the actual onset dates. In 2025, for example, the monsoon arrived over Kerala on May 24 against a forecast of May 27, while in 2024 the actual onset on May 30 was just one day ahead of the predicted May 31.
Officials believe that if the current atmospheric pattern sustains, Goa could witness enhanced rainfall activity toward the last week of May, offering the much-needed relief from the soaring temperatures and humid conditions prevailing across the state.
