EDITORIAL
Government needs to be ready to tackle a possibility of delayed and deficit monsoon
In April, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted early arrival of the southwest monsoon. While the typical onset over Kerala is June 1, it had predicted that monsoon will hit the Kerala coast around May 26. However, the spectacle of the southwest monsoon is delayed. The IMD has now said that it is set to advance into Kerala on June 4. The arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala marks the official start of the four-month season – the period which is most significant for the country’s food grains and water security.
Delayed monsoon is bad for any region and Goa is no exception. It is not that monsoon will be late in Goa for the first time. Ten years ago, monsoon arrived 14 days late in Goa, on June 19. June 5 is considered as the normal monsoon arrival date in Goa. The delay stretched to two weeks in 2019 when the rains arrived only on June 20. In 2023, Goa had to wait until June 11. Last year, however, monsoon reached Goa on May 25, an unprecedented 11 days ahead of schedule. Scientists have also observed and are studying the changes in rainfall pattern of the southwest monsoon. The IMD, in its initial first long range forecast, had also said that monsoon could be below normal or deficient.
The delayed onset of monsoon and the fear of below normal monsoon in Goa present a complex set of challenges that ripple across the state’s ecology, economy and even public infrastructure.
A delayed monsoon creates immense uncertainty for local farmers. Sowing activities for crops, particularly paddy, are pushed back, which can ultimately impact crop yields and rural incomes. The biggest worry of delayed rains is water availability. Even when Goa records normal monsoon, several parts of the state suffer from water shortages. The government has been upgrading its water systems but still it is not enough to provide adequate supply in summer. As already reported, water levels in some of the state’s dams have gone down and if we don’t get rains by mid-June, the situation will worsen.
Stagnant pools from pre-monsoon showers, supplemented with high humidity, turn into breeding grounds for mosquitoes, raising the risk of disease such as dengue and malaria. As far as our ecology is concerned, an extended dry season can severely impact the local biodiversity. Natural waterholes in the forested Western Ghats dry up, forcing wildlife to travel greater distances for water. This can also drive them closer to human settlements, increasing the risk of human-wildlife conflict.
The government has to be prepared to tackle situations which might emerge due to delayed and deficient monsoon. For this, local authorities and state departments will have to shift from a reactive to a preemptive approach. The Water Resources Department will have to efficiently manage current reservoir levels to ensure drinking water supplies remain uninterrupted until monsoon arrives in full throttle. But in the long run, it has to seriously audit its system and take necessary measures so that citizens get enough water during the pre-monsoon period. The state’s agricultural department needs to issue advisories guiding farmers on adjusted sowing schedules or recommending short-duration crop varieties.
There could be fallouts on the public health systems. Health centres and hospitals will have to prepare themselves to handle potential outbreaks of water-borne diseases once stagnant water begins to accumulate. The Forest Department will also have to intervene in protected areas and wildlife corridors by replenishing artificial waterholes. Hope the monsoon is not delayed.
