Abdul Wahab Khan
Panaji
Findings from five decades of satellite data and Random Forest classification have revealed a 3.75 per cent reduction in Goa’s dense forest cover and a loss of nearly 200 sq km of interior forests.
The research also identified a science-based pathway to balance conservation and tourism through regenerative tourism planning.
The report has noted that despite growing concerns over urbanisation, mining, monoculture plantations and tourism-related development, “there is little long-term research into the dynamics of land use and forest cover over the past 50 years.”
It has further highlighted that existing tourism planning often proceeds “independently from environmental data,” resulting in missed opportunities for restoration-based development.
The findings emerge from a study titled ‘GeoAI-Enabled Assessment of Forest Dynamics and Ecologically Sensitive Zoning for Regenerative Tourism in Goa, India’, conducted by Harshita Tiwari and Pragya Singh of the Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Information Technology (IIIT) Allahabad, along with Diwakar Tiwari of the Faculty of Commerce, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi. The paper was presented at the 2025 IEEE International Conference on Information and Communication Technology.
The researchers said the study was undertaken to bridge significant gaps in understanding Goa’s long-term forest dynamics and to provide an ecological foundation for tourism planning. The researchers employed GeoAI-based spatial analysis using multi-temporal satellite datasets spanning 1973 to 2022.
The methodology integrated machine-learning techniques, particularly Random Forest classification, with remote sensing data from Landsat satellites, NDVI vegetation analysis, forest fragmentation mapping, and Ecologically Sensitive Region (ESR) zoning.
The results have revealed mounting ecological stress. According to the report, “Using a five decades of satellite data and Random Forest classification, we noted 3.75% reduction in Goa’s DSF cover since 1990 with significant incipient fragmentation, particularly the loss of ~200 km² interior forests.”
The study has found that while around 37 per cent of the state still retains core forest cover concentrated in the Western Ghats, fragmentation is increasing and threatening habitat connectivity and biodiversity.
A key finding was the ecological significance of large portions of the state. The researchers reported that approximately 54 per cent of Goa falls within ESR-1 and ESR-2 categories, identified as highly sensitive ecological zones requiring conservation priority. These landscapes coincide with critical biodiversity habitats and substantial carbon reserves.
The study has estimated that Goa’s forests and mangroves currently store around 56,131 gigagrams of carbon, valued at nearly Rs 373 billion, making them important assets in climate mitigation efforts.
Discussing the implications, the report has said, “The study reveals the requirement of integrating regenerative tourism for ecological well-being in Goa using environmental data along with spatial planning.”
The research team has argued that tourism in ecologically sensitive areas should shift from an extractive model to one that actively contributes to ecosystem restoration through guided eco-retreats, nature walks, research tourism, mangrove restoration and community-led conservation initiatives.
The study has recommended legally recognising ESR zoning within land-use policy, declaring ESR-1 and ESR-2 regions as no development zones, establishing regenerative tourism corridors, creating a dedicated Regenerative Tourism Fund supported by tourist levies and CSR contributions, and promoting carbon-neutral tourism linked to reforestation and mangrove restoration projects.
“These steps will help make Goa a pioneer in sustainable and regenerative tourism in India,” the researchers reckoned.
