Panaji : Goa is likely to witness a delayed onset of the southwest monsoon this year, with meteorological conditions suggesting that the rains may arrive beyond the state’s normal arrival date of June 5.
The delay stems from the sluggish advance of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revising the Kerala onset window to June 2-4 after weakening rain bands and atmospheric obstructions over the south Arabian Sea slowed its progress. Since the monsoon typically takes about a week to travel from Kerala to Goa, an arrival by June 5 now appears increasingly unlikely.
“Conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into parts of Kerala during the next three to four days,” IMD said on Monday, adding that a clearer assessment of Goa’s onset date will be possible only after the monsoon establishes itself fully over Kerala.
Meanwhile, pre-monsoon showers are expected to continue across the state.
The delay would mark a return to the pattern seen during much of the past decade. Monsoon arrived in Goa 14 days late in 2016, on June 19. In the subsequent years, the delays continued: June 8 in 2017 delayed by three days. In 2018, it arrived two days later than anticipated, on
June 7. The delay stretched to a week in 2019 when the rains arrived only on June 20. The 2020 monsoon also reached Goa five days late. The year 2022 brought the monsoon to Goa on June 10, despite Kerala’s two-day delay. In 2023, Goa had to wait until June 11 — six days beyond the norm.
Only 2021 witnessed a near-normal onset, while 2024 saw a timely June 4 arrival. Last year, however, the monsoon reached Goa on May 25, an unprecedented 11 days ahead of schedule.
Rainfall from March 1 to May 31 this year stood at 79.5 mm against a normal of 69.8 mm, representing a surplus of 13.9 per cent. South Goa recorded 110 mm rainfall, 50.8 per cent above normal, while North Goa received only 44.9 mm, 32.1 per cent below normal.
The weather remained unusually warm during the final week of May. On May 31, Panaji recorded a maximum temperature of 35.4°C, 2.4°C above normal, while the minimum settled at 28.8°C, a significant 3.1°C above normal. Mormugao registered 35°C and 28.3°C respectively, both above seasonal averages. The elevated night temperatures persisted through the week, reflecting increased moisture and cloud cover ahead of monsoon onset.
For the coming week, IMD has forecast light to moderate rain or thundershowers across Goa, with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 40-50 kmph likely at isolated places on June 2 and 3. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain around 33-35°C while minimum temperatures will hover between 27°C and 28°C.
